KEY POINTS
- Preliminary data indicates that European air carriers likely exceeded the 2% sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) blending target mandated for the 2025 period.
- The success is attributed to a combination of increased domestic production capacity and a significant influx of imported biofuels that lowered market prices.
- While the initial milestone appears secure, industry experts warn that reaching the 6% requirement by 2030 will require a massive scale-up of synthetic e-fuel facilities.
European aviation is showing strong early progress in its transition to cleaner energy, with internal sources suggesting that airlines likely surpassed the European Union’s 2% green fuel mandate last year. This mandatory threshold, established under the ReFuelEU Aviation regulation, requires all flights departing from major EU airports to use a minimum blend of sustainable aviation fuel. The better-than-expected performance in 2025 provides a rare moment of optimism for a sector facing intense pressure to decarbonize while maintaining global competitiveness.
The ability of airlines to beat the target was largely driven by a stabilizing SAF market. Throughout late 2025, the industry saw an increase in the availability of “drop-in” biofuels, which can be used in existing aircraft engines without modification. Additionally, a surge in imports from international producers helped to ease the price premium that has historically made green kerosene much more expensive than traditional fossil fuels. This increased supply allowed many carriers to not only meet but exceed the legal minimums as part of their broader corporate sustainability goals.
The European Commission has welcomed the early results, noting that the “flexibility mechanism” within the regulation has functioned as intended. This mechanism allows fuel suppliers to average their SAF blending obligations across multiple airports, ensuring that supply is directed where it is most logistically feasible. Officials believe that this structural support, combined with the growing number of dedicated SAF production plants coming online across the continent, is creating the market certainty needed for long-term investment.
However, the path toward the next major milestone in 2030 remains fraught with technical challenges. While 2% was achievable through existing biofuel technologies—mostly derived from waste oils and fats—the 6% target for 2030 includes specific sub-mandates for synthetic fuels, also known as e-kerosene. These advanced fuels, which combine captured carbon with green hydrogen, are currently far more expensive to produce and remain in the early stages of industrial scaling. Analysts warn that without significant government subsidies or a rapid drop in renewable energy costs, the industry could struggle to maintain its current momentum.
Airlines are also raising concerns about the long-term impact of these mandates on ticket prices. Despite the recent easing of SAF costs, sustainable alternatives still trade at a significant multiple compared to conventional jet fuel. To mitigate the financial burden on passengers, the EU is exploring a Sustainable Transport Investment Plan designed to bridge the price gap between different fuel types. The goal is to prevent “carbon leakage,” where travelers might choose to fly through non-EU hubs to avoid the environmental surcharges associated with European green fuel laws.
As the 2026 reporting cycle begins, the focus is shifting toward ensuring the traceability and transparency of the fuel supply chain. The Commission is working to enhance the Union Database for Biofuels to prevent the double-counting of environmental benefits and to ensure that all imported fuels meet strict European sustainability criteria. For now, the successful crossing of the 2% threshold serves as a proof of concept for the EU’s ambitious “Fit for 55” climate package, demonstrating that a regulated market for green aviation is not only possible but active.
