Mayo Clinic researchers created a new tool to predict Alzheimer’s risk. This model estimates a person’s chances of memory decline. It works long before any symptoms even appear. This advance could lead to earlier treatment.
The tool uses data from a long-term brain health study. It combines three key factors for its predictions. These factors are a person’s age and sex. It also uses their genetic risk (APOE4 gene). Finally, it measures amyloid plaque buildup in the brain using PET scans. Amyloid is a toxic protein that causes Alzheimer’s.
Researchers can now calculate two risk types. They can predict a person’s risk over the next ten years. They also estimate their lifetime risk of developing mild cognitive impairment (MCI) or dementia. Higher amyloid levels were the strongest predictor. The study also showed women have a higher lifetime risk than men.
For example, a 75-year-old man with the APOE4 gene has a 56% lifetime risk at low amyloid levels. That risk jumps to over 76% at very high levels. Scientists hope this tool will eventually help doctors. It could guide decisions on starting therapy or making lifestyle changes early. The tool is currently only for research use.
