US stock index futures remained mostly flat on Thursday morning. Investors adopted a cautious approach. They paused a recent strong rally that pushed major indexes near record highs. Market focus centered squarely on upcoming crucial economic data releases. These reports will guide the Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates.
Wall Street‘s main indexes rose for the seventh time in eight sessions previously. That rally built on expectations for easier monetary policy. Specifically, a weak jobs report and signs of easing inflation drove the optimism. Traders now overwhelmingly predict an imminent rate cut. Futures markets currently price in an approximate 87% chance of a 25 basis point reduction. That cut is anticipated at the Fed’s policy meeting next week.
Fresh data presented a mixed picture of the American labor market. Weekly jobless claims data surprised analysts. The figure plunged sharply to 191,000. This represented the lowest level since September 2022. However, analysts cautioned that seasonal distortions, including the Thanksgiving holiday, may have skewed the numbers. This positive report followed conflicting data released just the day before. The ADP jobs report showed a surprise decline of 32,000 private sector jobs in November. That marked the largest drop in over two and a half years. Separately, the Challenger, Gray & Christmas report showed a monthly decline in announced layoffs. Still, year-to-date job cuts approached 1.2 million. This mixed data created confusion about the actual health of the employment landscape.
Investors are primarily looking toward Friday’s report. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index is due for release. This gauge represents the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. Its significance grew after a record-long government shutdown delayed other key labor statistics. The official November Non-Farm Payrolls report, for instance, is now delayed until after the Fed meeting. A softer-than-expected PCE reading would greatly reinforce calls for a December rate cut.
In corporate news, several major stocks moved in premarket trading following earning updates. Salesforce shares gained approximately 2%. The software giant raised its revenue and adjusted profit forecasts for fiscal 2026. This reflected strong enterprise demand for its artificial intelligence agent platform. Conversely, Snowflake dropped over 9%. The cloud data analytics company’s revenue forecast fell short of the high growth expectations set by investors. Meanwhile, Meta Platforms surged 4% on positive reports. Executives were reportedly considering budget cuts as high as 30% for the metaverse division next year. Financial institutions also saw movement. PayPal slipped 1% after brokerage JP Morgan downgraded its rating.
The market remains poised, awaiting conclusive inflation evidence. Investors continue betting heavily on a rate cut. The data released this week simply confirmed the conflicting crosscurrents present in the current economic landscape. This caution will likely persist until the PCE report provides clearer direction.
