U.S. online holiday spending is projected to rise 5.3% year-over-year to $253.4 billion, according to a new Adobe Analytics report. While the growth is slower than last year’s 8.7% jump, it signals that shoppers are still opening their wallets — with help from AI chatbots and an appetite for seasonal deals.
Adobe, which tracks over 1 trillion retail site visits and 18 product categories, noted that this year’s increase remains below the 10-year average of 13%. Still, consumers are eager to celebrate and seize discounts despite economic uncertainty. “They’re feeling the drive to get what they need and make the most of sales moments,” said Vivek Pandya, Adobe’s Director of Digital Insights.
Adobe expects the Cyber Week window — from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday — to be the peak, generating $43.7 billion (17.2%) of total online sales. Discounts will remain strong, though slightly below last year, with electronics peaking at 28% off and toys at 27% off.
Mobile shopping continues to soar, projected to make up 56% of all online purchases, up from 40% in 2020. Meanwhile, AI-assisted browsing is set to explode, with AI-driven traffic expected to rise 520% as consumers use chatbots for personalized gift ideas.
Despite slower growth, experts say the digital holiday season will stay strong — driven by a mix of tradition, tech, and timely deals.
