TRUMP’S $2,000 TARIFF CHECK PLAN: Can the Math and Law Back Up the ‘Dividend’ Promise?

President Donald Trump recently proposed sending most Americans a “dividend” check of at least $2,000 per person, funded directly by the revenue generated from his administration’s comprehensive tariffs.

The president has been clear that the payments would go to “everyone,” excluding “high-income people,” and that any remaining tariff revenue would be used to “substantially pay down” the national debt.

Financial experts and organizations like the Tax Foundation question the math. They estimate a $2,000 payment to low and middle-income adults would cost approximately $300 billion.

The Supreme Court is currently reviewing the legality of some of the largest tariffs. An adverse ruling could require the government to refund billions of dollars to businesses, severely curtailing the funds available for any rebate.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has suggested the “dividend” may not be a direct check at all, but rather the value of the tax cuts already passed by Congress, such as the elimination of taxes on tips and overtime, and the deductibility of auto loans.

For the proposal to become a reality as a direct check, it would require legislative approval from Congress.