Economic growth across Europe is shaping up unevenly in the coming years, with some countries outperforming regional peers while others lag. New projections for gross domestic product suggest that a mix of structural factors, trade patterns and policy environments will influence which nations post the strongest growth through 2026 and beyond.
Ireland stands out as an outlier with exceptionally robust expansion. The latest OECD forecast projects Irish GDP to surge by around 10.2 % in 2025, driven largely by front-loaded pharmaceutical exports ahead of U.S. tariff changes and strong activity in multinational sectors. That places Ireland well above other European economies and even near some global growth leaders.
However, analysts caution that Ireland’s figures can be skewed by how multinational firms report profits within its borders. Still, the broader trend reflects significant momentum.
Beyond Ireland, a handful of countries show solid growth prospects in 2026. Poland is forecast to expand by about 3.4 % next year, bolstered by investment, domestic demand and resilient labour markets. Lithuania follows with a projected growth rate near 3.1 %, underscoring strong performance among some of Europe’s smaller economies.
Turkey, although not an EU member, also appears near the top of European growth rankings, with economists forecasting above-average increases in output thanks to expanding domestic consumption and investment activity.
Spain is projected to lead among the largest EU economies in 2026. The OECD estimates Spanish GDP growth at roughly 2.2 %, driven by employment gains, rising wages and solid household spending. Continued implementation of structural and investment plans also supports the outlook.
The United Kingdom comes next among major economies with an expected expansion of about 1.2 %. Growth there is more modest, reflecting slower labour market dynamics and cautious business investment.
Meanwhile, traditional economic heavyweights such as Germany and France are forecast to grow at around 1 % in 2026. These middling rates reflect structural challenges, including an aging workforce, external trade headwinds, and policy constraints that dampen near-term momentum.
Italy, on the other hand, is expected to record one of the weakest expansions in the EU, with growth barely above 0.6 %. Persistent structural issues and slower private consumption are key contributors to the subdued outlook.
Looking slightly further ahead to 2027, Spain remains on a comparatively higher growth path among major economies, though its rate eases to around 1.8 %. Germany’s expansion is expected to pick up modestly, while the UK and Italy see only slight improvements. France’s growth is likely to remain steady, held back by similar structural constraints.
Beyond individual country forecasts, analysts emphasize that the overall pace of growth in the eurozone and wider European Union remains moderate. OECD projections suggest eurozone GDP will slow slightly to about 1.2 % in 2026 before gradually recovering. Factors such as capital spending from EU recovery funds, easing financial conditions and resilient labour markets provide support, even amid trade uncertainties and global economic headwinds.
In summary, growth prospects across Europe differ significantly. Smaller and more dynamic economies like Ireland, Poland and Lithuania are expected to lead the charge, while larger, more mature markets chart slower, steadier paths. These divergent trends reflect structural strengths, external trade exposure and domestic policy environments shaping national economic performance in the years ahead.
