Goldman Sachs Boosts 2026 Gold Forecast to $4,900/Oz on Sticky Demand

Goldman Sachs has raised its projected December 2026 gold price to $4,900 per ounce, up from $4,300, citing robust inflows into Western gold-backed ETFs and continued central bank buying. 

The firm argues that ETF and central bank demand have become “sticky”—meaning they’re not just speculative spikes but persistent structural drivers pushing the baseline higher.  Goldman analysts expect central bank purchases to average 80 metric tons in 2025 and 70 tons in 2026. 

Spot gold recently hit record highs, driven by safe-haven flows amid global uncertainty, a weakening U.S. dollar, and anticipation of interest rate cuts.  The metal has already surged 51% in 2025. 

Goldman sees further upside risks: it notes that private sector capital shifting modestly into the relatively small gold market could push demand beyond forecasts.  However, it also flags that speculative positioning has thus far remained broadly stable, suggesting current inflows are grounded in fundamentals. 

In summary: with mounting institutional, geopolitical, and macro tailwinds, Goldman is projecting a bullish trajectory for gold over the next 18 months — using rising ETF demand and central bank accumulation as core pillars of its upgraded baseline.